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A Study of the Use of the Delphi Method, A Futures Research Technique for Forecasting Selected U.S. Economic Variables and Determining Rationales for Judgements
about the future of the variables: the first was direct: “What value might these variables achieve by 2024 ... demanding huge amounts of services, especially health care As is usual in the Delphi process, Round 1 results ...- Authors: Society of Actuaries
- Date: Oct 2005
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Appendix B Round 2 Questionnaire Study of Selected Economic Variables Using the Delphi Method - Delphi Report
Appendix ... OK). Name: Address: Phone: My primary employment is in: Government Agency ____ Insurance ... health care 5. Growth in the number of elderly and concomitant cost increase in medical care expenses ...- Authors: Society of Actuaries
- Date: Oct 2005
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Appendix F - Round 1 Future Developments - Delphi Report
federal promises of retirement income and medical care. 137 • Tax and Social Security changes ... critical mass in demand for age-related medical care. With this transition, it becomes possible for providers ...- Authors: Society of Actuaries
- Date: Oct 2005
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
important models but also because they are series of direct concern to actuaries. Figure 4 displays the series ... for correlation among the observa- tions. The primary purpose of fitting models to time series data is ...- Authors: James C Hickman, Robert B Miller, Frank Reynolds, Richard W Ziock
- Date: Oct 1973
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Incorporate risk management; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Process and technique refinement
- Publication Name: Transactions of the SOA
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Modeling efficiency; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Regression analysis
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Summary Of Social Security Administration Projections Of The OASDI System
ion Purposes of the projection system The primary purpose of the projection methodology is to provide ... are actuaries, demographers or economists, the primary audiences of these notes. In particular, recursive ...- Authors: Edward Frees
- Date: Jan 2000
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Publication Name: Actuarial Research Clearing House
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting; Pensions & Retirement>Assumptions and methods; Social Insurance>Social Security
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Projected Cost Analysis of Potential Medicare Pharmacy Plan Designs
significant current public policy issues in health care is the lack of coverage for prescription drugs ... prescription drug claims data provided by Medicare managed care contributors and contains experience for over 50 ...- Authors: Lynette Trygstad, Timothy Feeser, Corey Berger
- Date: Jul 2003
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge; Leadership>Change management; Professional Values>Public interest representation; Results-Oriented Solutions>Actionable recommendations; Strategic Insight and Integration>Influence decisions; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Problem analysis and definition
- Topics: Economics>Health economics; Health & Disability>Public financing - Health & Disability; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting; Public Policy; Social Insurance>Medicare; Technology & Applications>Analytics and informatics
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Projections - How to Make Them and How to Use Them
crude illustration, it should be prepared with great care, and should be as far as possible realistic. The ... projection can be obtained if it is run without the direct use of the service tables and the benefit schedules ...- Authors: Robert F Link, Robert J Myers, A M Niessen, Dorrance C. Bronson, W Rulon Williamson, Herbert J. Stark
- Date: Nov 1950
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Transactions of the SOA
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting; Pensions & Retirement
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Appendix D - Round 2 Reasons for Projections - Delphi Report
demands for inflation-prone services like health care from retired baby boomers Expected Value ... health care • 5. Growth in the number of elderly and concomitant cost increase in medical care expenses ...- Authors: Society of Actuaries
- Date: Oct 2005
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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The Development of Mean Natural Reserve Factors and Methods of Amortizing Acquisition Expenses in Adjusting Life Insurance Company Earnings
expenses eligible for amortization should be in direct proportion to premium income. Since premium payers ... voyages. One amortization method is to have a direct proportional amortiza- tion, as illustrated in ...- Authors: Robert L Collett, Robert H Dreyer, A Henry Kunkemueller, Paul Milgrom, Claude Y Paquin, Anthony C Sharp, Steven Sommer, Leonard H McVity
- Date: Oct 1973
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge>Actuarial theory in business context; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Process and technique refinement
- Publication Name: Transactions of the SOA
- Topics: Financial Reporting & Accounting>Generally Accepted Accounting Principles [GAAP]; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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An Algorithm for Computing Expected Stop-Loss Claims under a Group Life Contract
encouraging because presumably one of the actuary's primary professional functions is the evaluation of risk ... probability theory and computer science to pro- duce a direct method for calculating stop-loss premiums for group ...- Authors: William A Bailey, Hans U Gerber, L Giles, Richard S Hester, Donald A Jones, John A Mereu, Gerald J Rankin, Courtland C Smith, William J Taylor
- Date: Oct 1972
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Process and technique refinement
- Publication Name: Transactions of the SOA
- Topics: Life Insurance>Group plans - Life Insurance; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Estimation methods; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting